Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8d1…cb84 sports 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+10%) realized +$221 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 67L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$148
14 days+$227
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$182
other 4% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 43% -0.7%
≤30d 121 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 45% -0.1%
≤90d 121 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 45% -0.1%
all 121 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 45% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 45% -0.1%
10% -8.2% 43% -9.6%
15% -17.0% 41% -18.4%
20% -25.2% 36% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 67
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage23d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 33¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $39 +$25 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 +$21 +55%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 +$13 +143%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $45 +$37 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 +$27 +77%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $15 −$10 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $118 +$22 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$11 +372%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$39 +78%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$5 +257%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$12 +385%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $10 2m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro SELL Carstensz 100¢ $65 3m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro BUY Carstensz 60¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 35¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 29¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 39¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 28¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 56¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 98¢ $47 18h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 99¢ $15 18h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 67¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $13 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 27¢ $6 19h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 57¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 23¢ $13 20h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 60¢ $0 20h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 90¢ $30 20h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 60¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $15 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $30 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $22 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 97¢ $82 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $45 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $9 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.73 · official $7.73 (match) · 241 history records