Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8d3…1bba other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,250 (-1%) realized −$1,250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%37W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,189per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$90
other 35% −$3
sports 16% −$1,081
world 4% −$50
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$48
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +3.2% -6.7% 12% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -11.6% -20.0% 6% 4% -10.9%
all 156 -1.1% -10.5% 24% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 10% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 9% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,799) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$1,250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses37 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,189
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $374 $374 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $9,076 −$10 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $650 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,638 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,941 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,562 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $816 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $64 +$28 +44%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,932 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,049 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $468 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $609 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $3,943 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,869 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $63 +$21 +32%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $37 +$48 +129%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 19 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,186 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,129 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $718 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $718 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $769 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $570 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $571 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $763 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $645 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $646 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $374 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $845 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $846 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $850 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $851 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $826 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $828 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $677 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $678 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.08 · official $374.08 (match) · 487 history records