Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8da…e707 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 36% −$14
sports 9% −$34
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -3.6% -12.8% 4% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage131d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $333 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $353 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $172 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $392 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $906 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $403 $0 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $375 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $559 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $348 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $334 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $340 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $711 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 16d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $22 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $22 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $195 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $195 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 23d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $168 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $172 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $172 24d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $168 24d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 28d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $169 28d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $169 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 30d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $174 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 436 history records