Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8da…096f weather 904 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,274 (+1%) realized +$1,285 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%882W / 17L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$194
14 days+$577
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$283
crypto 0% +$106
sports 0% +$285
other 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 4% -8.6%
≤30d 568 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 899 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 899 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$93 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$742
Realized+$1,285
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses882 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)899 / 904
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 899 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 93¢ $295 $280 −$16 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? No 96¢ 96¢ $154 $154 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $138 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $128 $130 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $268 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $282 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $217 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $158 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $275 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $158 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $271 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $298 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $148 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $274 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $154 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 98¢ $276 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $39 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $138 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $198 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $198 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $128 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $110 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $47 18h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $39 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $29 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $39 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $99 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $139 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $24 29h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $46 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $198 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $32 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $173 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $268 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $20 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $77 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $155 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $59 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $59 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $109 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.30 · official $745.00 (match) · 3500 history records