Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8db…9495 other 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$25
other 27% −$27
sports 17% −$14
crypto 8% −$13
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
finance 4% −$5
culture 3% −$3
tech 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 159 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 175 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 161
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage102d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 93¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $56 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $154 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $125 −$2 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $111 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $109 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $148 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $181 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $186 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $63 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $60 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $94 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $36 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $267 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $27 43m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 7h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 8h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 13h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $64 13h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $64 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 36h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 36h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 43h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $9 44h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $65 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $57 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $64 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $64 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $60 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.86 · official $53.74 (match) · 731 history records