Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa8df…e13e other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,178 (-1%) realized −$1,177 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,534per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days+$103
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,677
politics 38% −$104
sports 12% +$583
culture 2% −$11
economics 2% −$4
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 +11.3% +0.7% 16% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 107 -5.9% -14.8% 10% 7% -10.5%
all 140 +2.9% -6.9% 19% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 12% -10.0%
10% -15.8% 12% -18.6%
15% -24.0% 11% -26.5%
20% -31.4% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,654) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$22 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$1,177
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,534
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $436 $435 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $375 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,470 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,640 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5,462 −$8 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $83 +$69 +83%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,977 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,276 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $82 +$80 +97%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $129 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $518 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $847 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $2,240 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $3,812 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,341 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $47 +$68 +146%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $52 +$57 +109%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $5,204 −$6 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,130 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $5,432 −$7 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,998 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,931 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $4,380 −$6 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,094 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,096 4h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $561 6h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $561 7h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $374 8h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $375 9h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,401 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,405 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,407 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,403 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,405 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,404 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,407 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $436 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $233 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $665 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $743 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,640 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,607 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,609 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,611 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,614 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,621 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,623 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.97 · official $434.97 (match) · 475 history records