Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa8df…de77 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$549 (-0%) realized −$550 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$55
politics 43% −$64
sports 4% −$395
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$61
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 115 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 6% -10.0%
all 125 -2.2% -11.5% 8% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 6% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,194) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage98d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $233 $234 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $322 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $299 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,939 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,157 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,774 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $683 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $58 +$46 +79%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $292 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $564 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $557 −$1 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $62 +$17 +27%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $687 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $59 +$27 +46%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $44 +$38 +86%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $601 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $3,639 −$4 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $705 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $369 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $322 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $322 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $402 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $402 8h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 25h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 27h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 30h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $298 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $299 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $293 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $417 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $418 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $507 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $508 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $567 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $568 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $530 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $530 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $564 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $472 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $472 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $687 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $233 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $688 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $629 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.88 · official $233.88 (match) · 411 history records