Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e0…e1b9 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 22% −$23
politics 9% −$4
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$5
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage127d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $492 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $487 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $174 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $680 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $307 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $368 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $938 −$2 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $322 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $313 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $480 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $46 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $7 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $39 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 5h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 13h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 25h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 26h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 29h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 31h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 45h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 47h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 47h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1352 history records