Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa8e0…ad50
sports · 53 markets active 13h ago
0.0score
−$2,788,035 -160%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,818,344 · open +$30,309
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$116,592
Realized−$2,818,344
Unrealized+$30,309
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$25,775
Open positions3
Markets (closed)146 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32,788
Trades / day413.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,764,629
7 days−$2,784,295
14 days−$2,818,344
30 days−$2,818,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 66¢ $46,027 $62,414 +$16,388 (+36%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 66¢ $39,200 $53,200 +$14,000 (+36%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 44¢ $1,057 $978 −$79 (-7%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 57¢ 0¢ $57,000 $0 −$57,000 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Dom Mar Fan 41¢ 0¢ $21,036 $0 −$21,036 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 49¢ 0¢ $39,893 $0 −$39,893 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 0¢ $11,730 $0 −$11,730 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 28¢ 0¢ $38,104 $0 −$38,104 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $25,146 $0 −$25,146 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $6,184 $0 −$6,184 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 50¢ 0¢ $45,000 $0 −$45,000 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $15,869 $0 −$15,869 (-100%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 59¢ 0¢ $14,517 $0 −$14,517 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 41¢ 0¢ $57,122 $0 −$57,122 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $43,200 $0 −$43,200 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $42,584 $0 −$42,584 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 0¢ $179,400 $0 −$179,400 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees Texas Rangers 46¢ 0¢ $44,691 $0 −$44,691 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 38¢ 0¢ $12,099 $0 −$12,099 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 0¢ $1,556 $0 −$1,556 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 55¢ 0¢ $11,464 $0 −$11,464 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ 0¢ $72,600 $0 −$72,600 (-100%)
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? No 71¢ 0¢ $35,500 $0 −$35,500 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $19,200 $0 −$19,200 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 57¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $57,000 −$57,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $21,036 −$21,036 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $39,893 −$39,893 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $11,730 −$11,730 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $25,146 −$25,146 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $6,184 −$6,184 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $45,000 −$45,000 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $15,869 −$15,869 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $43,200 −$43,200 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $42,584 −$42,584 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 12 $179,400 −$179,400 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $44,691 −$44,691 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $12,099 −$12,099 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $1,556 −$1,556 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $11,464 −$11,464 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $72,600 −$72,600 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $35,500 −$35,500 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $19,200 −$19,200 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $913 −$913 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $30,100 −$30,100 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $4,874 −$4,874 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys Jun 12 $12,179 −$12,179 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $25,500 −$25,500 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 12 $13,842 −$13,842 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $25,000 −$25,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim Jun 12 $26,314 −$26,314 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $49,036 −$49,036 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $27,900 −$27,900 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $44,000 −$44,000 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 12 $40,800 −$40,800 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $37,168 −$38,410 -103%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $56,699 −$56,699 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $246 −$246 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $62,920 −$62,920 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $29,400 −$29,400 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $23,012 −$23,012 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $713 −$713 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 12 $31,805 −$31,805 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $799 −$799 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $33,600 −$33,600 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $284 −$284 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5,004 −$5,004 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $8,541 −$8,541 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $436 −$436 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 Jun 12 $144,964 −$144,964 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$196,715
other 4% +$45,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $22,864 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $47 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $59 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $222 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,468 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $117 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $187 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $59 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $294 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $379 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $266 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $21 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $62 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-72.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -72.1% -74.8% 14% 14% -72.4%
≤30d 146 -69.3% -72.2% 16% 16% -70.0%
≤90d 146 -69.3% -72.2% 16% 16% -70.0%
all 146 -69.3% -72.2% 16% 16% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover413.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.2% 16% -70.0%
10% -74.9% 15% -72.9%
15% ← realistic here -77.3% 14% -75.5%
20% -79.5% 12% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116,592.42 · official $117,065.26 (match) · 3500 history records