Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e6…d471 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,556 (-3%) realized −$12,948 · open +$391
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%86W / 62L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,586per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$4,158est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days−$12,648
14 days−$11,406
30 days−$13,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$11,520
other 1% −$1,266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -14.8% -22.9% 51% 51% -32.4%
≤30d 148 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% -12.6%
≤90d 148 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% -12.6%
all 148 +2.8% -7.0% 58% 58% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 58% -12.6%
10% -15.9% 58% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 51% -28.6%
20% -31.5% 43% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,086) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,564 vs −$2,382 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,567
Realized−$12,948
Unrealized+$391
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses86 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$4,158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2,586
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 57¢ 76¢ $1,176 $1,567 +$391 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,807 +$864 +48%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $995 −$980 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,254 −$1,240 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $920 +$480 +52%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $866 +$634 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $78 −$19 -24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $835 −$820 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $656 −$645 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $730 +$791 +108%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $1,690 +$834 +49%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $454 +$232 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,015 +$485 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $915 −$915 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $1,469 +$644 +44%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $705 +$781 +111%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $619 −$605 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $498 −$490 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $585 +$615 +105%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $671 +$829 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 20 $429 −$420 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $288 +$131 +46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $979 −$969 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $857 +$409 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,169 −$1,150 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $503 −$497 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $513 −$504 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,426 −$3,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,195 +$707 +32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,458 −$1,441 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $2,267 +$730 +32%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $15 +$10 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1,299 −$1,280 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $931 +$368 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $487 +$448 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,045 −$3,015 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,174 +$617 +28%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,411 +$1,033 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1,617 −$1,595 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,128 −$3,094 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,685 −$2,659 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2,765 +$1,448 +52%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1,835 −$1,807 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $42 +$39 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3,158 +$2,321 +74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,682 +$2,160 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6,072 −$6,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $24,075 −$24,075 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5,237 +$3,177 +61%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4,448 +$3,105 +70%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $3,010 +$1,460 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 57¢ $289 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 57¢ $505 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 56¢ $44 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 56¢ $354 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,807 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $995 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,254 6h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $920 11h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $866 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 47¢ $59 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $835 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $656 33h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 66¢ $3 37h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 66¢ $4 37h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 66¢ $7 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 60¢ $75 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 37h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $716 37h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $2,525 37h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $712 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $686 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $617 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $30 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $16 40h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $66 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $67 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $67 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $3 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $3 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $33 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,567.04 · official $1,567.04 (match) · 709 history records