Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8e9…4980 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$52
14 days−$97
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$58
other 9% −$50
economics 8% −$54
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -76.1% -78.3% 0% 0% -75.3%
≤30d 28 -45.9% -51.1% 25% 25% -50.9%
≤90d 30 -43.7% -49.1% 27% 27% -29.3%
all 34 -35.5% -41.6% 29% 29% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 29% -13.7%
10% -47.2% 24% -21.9%
15% -52.3% 21% -29.5%
20% -57.0% 21% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage576d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$5 -61%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 22 $30 −$24 -82%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 21 $28 −$17 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? May 31 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? May 31 $28 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $103 −$54 -53%
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? May 09 $206 +$53 +26%
Dogecoin above $0.40 on November 29? Nov 28 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 28 $128 +$209 +164%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 28 $50 −$21 -43%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Nov 27 $368 −$120 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 34h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 34h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 7d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $17 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.09 · official $23.09 (match) · 93 history records