Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8e9…24fb crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$218 (+43%) realized +$218 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +34.9% +22.0% 83% 78% +32.3%
≤30d 18 +34.9% +22.0% 83% 78% +32.3%
≤90d 18 +34.9% +22.0% 83% 78% +32.3%
all 18 +34.9% +22.0% 83% 78% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 78% +32.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.4% 72% +19.7%
15% -0.3% 50% +8.1%
20% -10.1% 33% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 83¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$35 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$109 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.60 (match) · 55 history records