Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8ec…4d49 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,145 (+9%) realized +$5,145 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%61W / 33L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$639per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,897
7 days+$2,735
14 days+$3,083
30 days+$3,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,799
sports 43% +$3,002
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 71% 19% -2.6%
≤30d 53 +9.0% -1.4% 77% 28% -3.7%
≤90d 94 +8.9% -1.5% 65% 29% -2.3%
all 94 +8.9% -1.5% 65% 29% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 29% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 17% -11.6%
15% -19.5% 13% -20.2%
20% -27.4% 9% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$705) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$64 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses61 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage55d
Avg bet$639
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,661 +$55 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $238 −$50 -21%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,641 +$236 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,014 +$537 +18%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $43 −$18 -41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$4 -54%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,193 +$48 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 +$2 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $3,005 +$184 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,844 +$1,203 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 +$3 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $86 +$20 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $194 +$16 +8%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1,736 +$228 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,004 +$150 +5%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4,377 −$148 -3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3,005 +$186 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3,998 +$241 +6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$6 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $506 +$203 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$3 -13%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,002 −$516 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,607 −$7 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,001 +$104 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,001 +$57 +6%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $64 +$57 +88%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $209 +$288 +138%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 25 $79 +$59 +74%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2,216 −$724 -33%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $923 +$33 +4%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $705 +$203 +29%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,183 +$216 +18%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5 May 24 $553 +$35 +6%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $251 +$16 +6%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $841 +$33 +4%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $412 +$84 +20%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2,175 +$363 +17%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,359 +$97 +7%
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? May 24 $509 −$294 -58%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $312 +$3 +1%
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5 May 24 $501 −$40 -8%
Will São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 23 $636 +$5 +1%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,513 +$112 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 97¢ $1,661 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $188 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 75¢ $1,470 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $56 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 75¢ $564 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 75¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 75¢ $564 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 75¢ $329 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $182 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,877 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,641 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,551 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $11 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $3,014 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 56¢ $21 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 65¢ $4 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 96¢ $43 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,241 17h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $31 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $10 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $12 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $32 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $113 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $79 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $96 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $22 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 96¢ $27 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 710 history records