Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa8f3…e544 sports 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,727 (+7%) realized +$5,628 · open −$901
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%316W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$877est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$339
other 19% −$480
politics 4% −$616
crypto 0% −$14
world 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 355 +1.6% -8.1% 48% 47% -10.4%
≤90d 654 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 47% -10.3%
all 654 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 47% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 47% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 47% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 45% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$94 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$8,029
Realized+$5,628
Unrealized−$901
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses316 / 338
Est. fees paid−$877
Open positions83
Markets (closed)654 / 723
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $665 $713 +$48 (+7%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 49¢ 47¢ $663 $641 −$22 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $666 $476 −$190 (-29%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 48¢ 42¢ $503 $438 −$65 (-13%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $252 $277 +$26 (+10%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 58¢ 63¢ $252 $269 +$18 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $252 $265 +$13 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 42¢ 43¢ $252 $258 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $251 $253 +$2 (+1%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $249 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $252 $237 −$15 (-6%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 95¢ $72 $191 +$119 (+165%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 43¢ 71¢ $92 $153 +$60 (+65%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 21¢ $50 $150 +$100 (+200%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 74¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $116 $121 +$5 (+4%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $101 $121 +$20 (+20%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $101 $113 +$13 (+12%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 62¢ $51 $105 +$54 (+105%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+85%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 18¢ 16¢ $101 $90 −$11 (-11%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $113 $82 −$31 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 −$14 -14%
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-1.5) Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $101 +$119 +117%
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $118 +$82 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $101 +$114 +113%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$98 +96%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$84 +163%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 +$100 +100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $101 +$74 +74%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $102 −$101 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$94 +92%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $102 −$101 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $103 −$102 -99%
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats: O/U 58.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $253 +$52 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$9 +9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $104 −$103 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $101 +$14 +14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $101 +$134 +133%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $101 +$119 +117%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $101 +$134 +133%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$145 +144%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $101 +$114 +113%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $204 −$101 -50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 +$36 +22%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $100 +$110 +110%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$109 +108%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $26 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $8 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $2 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $2 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $2 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $2 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $2 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 12¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $6 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $12 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $0 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $0 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $16 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $36 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $2 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $18 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,028.85 · official $8,040.98 (match) · 3500 history records