Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f5…76d3 crypto 483 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,060 (-10%) realized −$2,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%201W / 280L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$19
14 days+$52
30 days−$1,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,345
other 2% +$85
sports 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 44% -6.0%
≤30d 246 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 39% -24.9%
≤90d 288 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 40% -23.1%
all 481 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 38% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 38% -19.7%
10% -23.1% 35% -27.4%
15% -30.5% 32% -34.4%
20% -37.4% 30% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$2,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses201 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)481 / 483
History coverage167d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 228 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$15 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$21 +414%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$46 +180%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $318 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.85 · official $15.10 (match) · 1070 history records