Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8f6…777d politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$18
other 35% −$21
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$2
sports 5% +$62
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +0.7% -8.9% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 114 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×11.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage115d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $385 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $805 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $366 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $364 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $305 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $305 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $286 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $339 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $283 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $277 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $340 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $333 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 19 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 4d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 11d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $46 11d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 17d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 17d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 18d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 19d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records