Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa8f9…9fae world 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$460 (+2%) realized +$784 · open −$324
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%132W / 30L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$727
crypto 24% −$552
other 19% +$291
politics 4% +$17
sports 1% −$86
economics 1% +$24
tech 1% −$200
culture 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.6% +3.7% 88% 76% -5.2%
≤30d 28 +12.0% +1.3% 89% 61% -3.5%
≤90d 80 -2.7% -12.0% 79% 40% -12.3%
all 162 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 35% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 35% -7.4%
10% -20.1% 21% -16.2%
15% -27.8% 11% -24.3%
20% -34.9% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$75 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$3,749
Realized+$784
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses132 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)162 / 194
History coverage343d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 78¢ 61¢ $500 $396 −$104 (-21%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $370 $393 +$23 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $184 $194 +$10 (+6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-19%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 100¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 82¢ 93¢ $103 $117 +$14 (+14%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 36¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 +$15 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 +$8 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $115 +$15 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $151 +$54 +36%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $119 +$13 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 04 $14 −$4 -28%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Jun 04 $15 +$3 +19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $30 +$6 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$5 +6%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$8 +8%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 04 $200 +$5 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Jun 04 $200 +$50 +25%
Trump out as President by April 30? Jun 04 $250 +$5 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 04 $300 +$19 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 04 $465 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 09 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$5 +86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? Apr 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 +$24 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026 Apr 07 $100 +$18 +18%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $42 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 05 $40 +$5 +13%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Iran strike Syria in March? Apr 04 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 202 Apr 04 $200 +$11 +6%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Apr 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $30 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $200 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $30 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $100 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $20 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 70d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 70d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 78¢ $500 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,748.76 · official $3,748.17 (match) · 748 history records