Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8f9…060b other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$471 (+3%) realized +$455 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%45W / 21L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$1,154
14 days−$350
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$553
crypto 37% −$606
sports 14% +$312
world 4% +$57
economics 3% +$15
tech 3% +$150
finance 1% +$7
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 21% -45.6%
≤30d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 38% 34% -12.2%
≤90d 37 +8.7% -1.6% 43% 35% -12.4%
all 66 +10.4% -0.1% 68% 36% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 36% -6.2%
10% -9.6% 26% -15.2%
15% -18.4% 17% -23.4%
20% -26.4% 12% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$97 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$1,376
Realized+$455
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses45 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions11
Markets (closed)66 / 81
History coverage177d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $500 $533 +$33 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 31¢ 34¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $127 +$86 +68%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $133 −$130 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $132 −$93 -70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $254 −$150 -59%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$265 +1290%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $304 +$194 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Honor of Kings: EDward Gaming vs Qing Jiu Club (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 21? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 15 $518 −$518 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 15 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$134 +262%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $122 −$26 -21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $506 +$365 +72%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 13 $514 +$163 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $212 +$89 +42%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $311 +$7 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 08 $524 −$24 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,006 +$170 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 14 $512 +$3 +1%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 13 $100 −$67 -67%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? May 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of Febru Mar 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 10 $300 +$17 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $300 +$139 +46%
Solana Up or Down on February 20? Feb 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Will "Zootropolis 2" win Best Animated Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Feb 24 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? Feb 20 $300 +$68 +23%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? Feb 14 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Feb 14 $300 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 21? Jan 27 $20 +$9 +47%
Seeker FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $317 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 11¢ $21 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-2 BUY $10 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $41 4h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 68¢ $202 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $101 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $51 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $102 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $101 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 12¢ $31 16h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $102 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 57¢ $371 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 59¢ $127 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $30 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $102 44h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 86¢ $50 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL XLG Gaming 15¢ $47 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $102 4d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $102 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $304 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 33¢ $20 6d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $51 6d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $51 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,376.28 · official $1,862.28 · 332 history records