Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8f9…2573 other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$837 (+4%) realized +$789 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 129L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$633
other 22% +$235
world 4% −$145
sports 4% −$40
weather 2% −$212
crypto 1% +$7
tech 1% +$14
economics 0% −$87
culture 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -92.8% -93.5% 5% 4% +13.4%
≤30d 56 -92.8% -93.5% 5% 4% +13.4%
≤90d 68 -69.7% -72.6% 21% 13% +10.1%
all 219 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 28% -7.9%
10% -22.4% 20% -16.7%
15% -29.9% 13% -24.8%
20% -36.8% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$789
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)219 / 186
History coverage627d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $144 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $121 $124 +$2 (+2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 49¢ 72¢ $55 $79 +$25 (+45%)
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 78¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 24¢ 55¢ $8 $19 +$11 (+133%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Deel IPO before 2027? No 79¢ 96¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Vanta IPO before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+35%)
SHEIN IPO before 2027? No 75¢ 81¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 48¢ 26¢ $23 $12 −$10 (-45%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+44%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? No 63¢ 91¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No 87¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Glean IPO before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Celonis IPO before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Rippling IPO before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 73¢ 83¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No 88¢ 84¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Ramp IPO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Harold Mayne-Nicholls win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carolina Tohá win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ruth Nina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Beto O'Rourke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Mesa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ximena Rincón win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gualberto Cusi Mamani win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael Swanson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rubén Costas win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 1h
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 30d
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 39¢ $114 40d
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $123 43d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 43d
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen BUY Yes 55¢ $235 62d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $150 92d
Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $89 93d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 56¢ $112 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $93 94d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? SELL No 50¢ $73 95d
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 SELL Yes 20¢ $9 97d
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 97d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 97d
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 98d
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 98d
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 98d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? SELL No 53¢ $11 98d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 98d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? BUY No 89¢ $4 98d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 98d
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 99d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 99d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? BUY No 80¢ $8 99d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 99d
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? BUY No 47¢ $5 99d
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 99d
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? BUY No 65¢ $3 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.37 · official $570.78 (match) · 989 history records