Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa901…d418 other 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$960 (+4%) realized +$966 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%188W / 199L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$45
world 14% +$190
finance 14% +$119
crypto 12% +$17
politics 6% +$275
sports 3% −$169
tech 0% −$12
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 43 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 23% -28.2%
≤90d 100 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 30% -6.5%
all 387 +14.4% +3.5% 49% 37% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 37% -8.1%
10% -6.4% 28% -16.9%
15% -15.4% 21% -24.9%
20% -23.7% 17% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$966
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses188 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)387 / 398
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $45 −$18 -40%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 25 $9 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 23 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 23 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 23 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 23 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $178 −$94 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events in Rockland County? May 23 $4 +$29 +809%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events in Rockland County? May 22 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Trump say "Tax" 7+ times during events in Rockland County? May 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during events in Rockland County? May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 21 $76 −$32 -42%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during events in Rockland County? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Chair" this week? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 18? May 18 $2 +$1 +38%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18? May 18 $60 −$4 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 17 $131 +$12 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15? May 16 $247 +$261 +106%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15? May 15 $60 +$37 +62%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $265 −$260 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 7? May 07 $7 −$6 -83%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7? May 07 $76 +$9 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 7? May 07 $93 +$50 +54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 7? May 07 $95 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? SELL No 54¢ $9 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? BUY No 54¢ $9 8d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 27¢ $11 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 27¢ $3 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 27¢ $5 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 27¢ $3 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 27¢ $5 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 44¢ $45 15d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.49 · official $230.50 (match) · 3500 history records