Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

A9 0xa902…4bca other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized +$14 · open −$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$198per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$674

7 days+$1,232

14 days+$1,198

30 days+$1,198

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+10.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+54.2%	+39.5%	73%	64%	+33.9%
≤30d	19	+22.1%	+10.5%	58%	53%	+23.4%
≤90d	19	+22.1%	+10.5%	58%	53%	+23.4%
all	19	+22.1%	+10.5%	58%	53%	+23.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.5%	53%	+23.4%
10%	-0.1%	47%	+11.6%
15%	-9.8%	42%	+0.8%
20%	-18.6%	32%	-9.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$155 vs −$63 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$292

Realized+$14

Unrealized−$32

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage8d

Avg bet$198

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	36¢	32¢	$324	$293	−$32 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	Jun 24	$286	+$109	+38%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	Jun 24	$178	−$38	-21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 24	$295	−$8	-3%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$30	−$29	-97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$17	+$6	+33%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$102	+$340	+335%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$265	+$272	+103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$455	+$22	+5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$441	+$320	+73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$401	+$149	+37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$96	+$89	+94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$120	−$117	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$153	+$211	+138%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$39	+$4	+11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$108	−$106	-98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$133	−$130	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$102	+$179	+175%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$29	−$28	-97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$48	−$47	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$330	16m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	35¢	$129	25m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	SELL Yes	16¢	$395	26m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$141	52m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	SELL Yes	5¢	$140	52m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	BUY Yes	11¢	$286	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	53¢	$287	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$295	14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	6¢	$178	14h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	SELL Yes	4¢	$23	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	SELL Yes	69¢	$441	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	15¢	$102	23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	7¢	$30	23h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	3¢	$17	23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	74¢	$537	23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	68¢	$477	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	63¢	$455	37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	35¢	$265	46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	51¢	$294	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	57¢	$441	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL	82¢	$550	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	75¢	$185	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$96	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	59¢	$401	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	29¢	$120	7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND	BUY	40¢	$287	7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$39	7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$37	7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$71	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.50 · official $292.50 (match) · 39 history records