Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa904…9cec sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$60 (+2%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%103W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$68
crypto 12% −$38
other 5% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 48% -43.9%
≤30d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 48% -43.9%
≤90d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 48% -43.9%
all 162 -8.7% -17.4% 64% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 50% -8.7%
10% -25.3% 39% -17.4%
15% -32.5% 25% -25.4%
20% -39.1% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses103 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)162 / 168
History coverage271d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 −$33 -50%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +10%
Hornets vs. Pistons Jan 08 $2 $0 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) Dec 21 $2 +$1 +39%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $1 +$1 +72%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Spurs Nov 21 $1 +$1 +96%
Clippers vs. Magic Nov 21 $2 +$1 +47%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 20 $1 +$1 +92%
Kings vs. Thunder Nov 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Pistons vs. Hawks Nov 19 $2 +$2 +82%
Pacers vs. Pistons Nov 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Thunder vs. Pelicans Nov 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Thunder vs. Hornets Nov 17 $10 +$1 +10%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 15 $1 $0 +49%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Wizards vs. Rockets Nov 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Warriors vs. Thunder Nov 12 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $86 +$67 +78%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $21 +$1 +4%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $21 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $5 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $4 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $1 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 440 history records