Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A9 0xa905…7b90 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$53
sports 37% +$134
crypto 20% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +12.2% +1.5% 62% 62% -5.7%
≤30d 35 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 63% -5.0%
≤90d 35 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 63% -5.0%
all 35 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 63% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 63% -5.0%
10% -9.5% 60% -14.1%
15% -18.2% 57% -22.4%
20% -26.2% 43% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions24
Markets (closed)35 / 63
History coverage28d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $36 $46 +$10 (+29%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $28 $38 +$9 (+34%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $35 +$4 (+15%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 50¢ $43 $30 −$13 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $34 $27 −$6 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $36 $24 −$11 (-32%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 58¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-62%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $39 +$39 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $17 +$13 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $21 +$52 +250%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$9 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 +$8 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$27 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 +$15 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$21 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 +$18 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$30 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $88 +$28 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $57 +$23 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $342 +$53 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $90 +$60 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 19¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $39 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $17 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $41 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $61 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $49 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $11 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $29 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $22 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.58 · official $620.58 · 119 history records