Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa905…dcc2 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$2
other 21% −$4
sports 5% +$10
politics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -6.2% -15.2% 38% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 3% -8.8%
10% -23.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -30.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -37.5% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage487d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $75 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 -16%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $12 $0 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? Mar 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Oral Roberts vs. Denver Mar 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $2 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $41 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $43 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 35h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 44h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $43 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $43 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records