Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa906…897b politics 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-10%) realized −$243 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$248
14 days−$229
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$241
world 19% +$21
politics 18% +$18
tech 4% −$100
economics 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.9% -20.3% 75% 50% -37.0%
≤30d 10 +11.4% +0.7% 80% 60% -27.3%
≤90d 19 +27.7% +15.5% 74% 63% -20.8%
all 39 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 46% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 46% -19.4%
10% -11.5% 33% -27.1%
15% -20.1% 26% -34.1%
20% -27.9% 21% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Open positions19
Markets (closed)39 / 58
History coverage164d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $123 $118 −$5 (-4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $77 $63 −$14 (-18%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 71¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+325%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? Yes 12¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $113 +$10 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $361 −$315 -87%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 +$58 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +19%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1 +$2 +192%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $2 +$3 +142%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1 +$1 +65%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Apr 30 $30 +$41 +137%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 30 $20 −$14 -72%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $246 −$5 -2%
French election called by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $37 −$32 -86%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Apr 05 $108 +$32 +30%
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? Mar 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $51 +$42 +82%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $1 +$1 +103%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $69 −$69 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jan 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 23 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $47 +$10 +21%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 17 $45 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $80 +$30 +37%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $107 −$37 -35%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 12 $200 −$4 -2%
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 85¢ $124 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 93¢ $123 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 83¢ $52 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $361 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 6d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 58¢ $12 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $47 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $2 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 45d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 46¢ $10 45d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $4 48d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 51d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 51d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 86¢ $17 52d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 86¢ $43 52d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 52d
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? SELL No 88¢ $71 54d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? SELL Yes $6 54d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $241 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 87¢ $238 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 89¢ $246 72d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 75d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 75d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $1 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.04 · official $233.05 (match) · 168 history records