Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa906…ff14 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%55W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$67
14 days+$45
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$14
sports 32% −$86
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.4% +10.7% 64% 64% +5.6%
≤30d 27 +13.6% +2.8% 59% 59% -3.8%
≤90d 50 +17.1% +5.9% 64% 64% -1.0%
all 99 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 56% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 56% -11.7%
10% -18.3% 56% -20.1%
15% -26.2% 56% -27.8%
20% -33.4% 51% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses55 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage170d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 68¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $34 −$34 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 +$23 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$24 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$19 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$38 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$45 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$37 +146%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$20 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$9 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$10 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 +$7 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $22 +$12 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $32 +$28 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $32 +$32 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $21 +$18 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $24 +$20 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $27 +$30 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $17 +$10 +57%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 16 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $18 +$14 +79%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 16 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $17 +$18 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $12 +$9 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $14 +$8 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $12 +$15 +124%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 18 $13 +$10 +75%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 18 $14 +$10 +70%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $34 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $33 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $33 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $23 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $28 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $44 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $35 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $41 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $18 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $19 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $18 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $17 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $16 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $22 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $26 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $31 11d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $32 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 29d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $32 29d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 36d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $24 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.09 · official $34.09 (match) · 160 history records