Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa906…9fdf other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$34
sports 22% −$13
politics 9% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$7
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage128d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $223 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $439 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $349 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $314 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $428 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $212 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $402 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $512 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 33m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 16h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 31h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 32h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 40h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 43h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.82 · official $49.82 (match) · 1235 history records