Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa90a…63e0 crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,302 (+20%) realized +$1,547 · open −$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 80L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$131
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$131
sports 24% +$1,927
tech 15% −$83
crypto 11% −$337
culture 10% −$276
politics 9% −$362
finance 2% −$52
world 2% +$467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 39 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 36% -13.3%
≤90d 136 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 35% +13.5%
all 136 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 35% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 35% +13.5%
10% -32.7% 26% +2.7%
15% -39.2% 21% -7.3%
20% -45.1% 15% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$26 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized+$1,547
Unrealized−$245
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 80
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions8
Markets (closed)136 / 144
History coverage58d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 55¢ 34¢ $440 $268 −$172 (-39%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $269 $208 −$60 (-22%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $204 $199 −$5 (-2%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $71 $65 −$5 (-8%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-7%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-24%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+108%)
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Judge 10¢ 12¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $26 $0 +2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 16 $300 +$258 +86%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$7 -15%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 +$7 +12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $81 −$5 -7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $239 −$239 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 +$86 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $156 −$17 -11%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $154 −$67 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $0 $0 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $361 +$134 +37%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $361 +$57 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2? Jun 02 $155 −$52 -33%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Trump say "Trump Tower" in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $102 −$88 -86%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting? May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9AM ET May 27 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $106 +$28 +27%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? May 27 $107 +$381 +357%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 $0 +30%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National May 26 $1 $0 +50%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gro May 25 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $100 −$76 -76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $41 +$84 +204%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $657 +$2,251 +342%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Hungary May 24 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $118 +$24 +21%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $103 −$72 -69%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 23 $30 −$26 -86%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$4 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 41¢ $26 1h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $34 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 25¢ $9 2d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 8¢ $31 5d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $101 5d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 8¢ $9 6d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes 8¢ $17 6d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.53 · official $831.01 (match) · 762 history records