Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa90b…5ca7 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$957 (-4%) realized −$1,006 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%72W / 29L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$377
7 days−$1,436
14 days−$2,290
30 days−$1,791
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$167
other 22% −$1,013
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -32.6%
≤30d 45 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 58% -20.3%
≤90d 68 -2.1% -11.5% 68% 65% -15.3%
all 101 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 68% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 68% -14.4%
10% -15.6% 56% -22.6%
15% -23.7% 31% -30.1%
20% -31.2% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$229 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses72 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage358d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $250 $299 +$49 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $627 −$625 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $397 −$396 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $403 +$123 +31%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $201 −$1 -0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $727 +$521 +72%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $606 −$600 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $164 −$15 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $605 +$210 +35%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $504 +$180 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$137 +68%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $506 +$314 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $388 +$169 +44%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $789 +$376 +48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $202 −$42 -21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$43 +21%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $504 +$190 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$88 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 +$48 +16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 +$120 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $201 +$45 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $202 +$76 +38%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $302 +$64 +21%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $302 +$82 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $308 −$6 -2%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $169 +$91 +54%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $202 +$106 +53%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $202 +$5 +2%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $250 +$125 +50%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 31 $299 +$173 +58%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $506 −$500 -99%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $502 +$38 +8%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $201 −$200 -99%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 May 24 $503 +$142 +28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $202 +$80 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $310 57m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 57m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $12 57m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $302 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $196 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $201 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 87¢ $200 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 58¢ $727 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $606 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 19¢ $149 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $164 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $684 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $504 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $24 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $188 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 7d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $202 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 74¢ $605 7d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 64¢ $202 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.91 · official $299.63 (match) · 233 history records