Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa90c…17b6 world 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$492 (-11%) realized −$492 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$35
14 days−$422
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$4
other 31% −$418
sports 30% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 7 -13.4% -21.7% 29% 0% -22.7%
≤90d 14 -20.2% -27.8% 43% 0% -19.5%
all 14 -20.2% -27.8% 43% 0% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 0% -19.5%
10% -34.7% 0% -27.2%
15% -41.0% 0% -34.2%
20% -46.8% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$98 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage80d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $480 +$35 +7%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $482 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $452 −$451 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $458 −$6 -1%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $466 +$14 +3%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 01 $466 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $8 $0 -3%
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Apr 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 21 $396 +$18 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $394 +$2 +0%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 20 $365 +$23 +6%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $358 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Mar 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $480 4d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $482 4d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $482 4d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $452 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $453 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $458 7d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $466 16d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $464 16d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $466 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 24d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $20 48d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $16 48d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $4 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $20 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $23 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 48d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 48d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $301 58d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $96 58d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $396 58d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $394 58d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Antalyaspor 94¢ $365 60d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 99¢ $358 61d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $358 61d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY MINLATE 47¢ $38 83d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY MINLATE 47¢ $52 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records