Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa90e…6ef6 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$5
other 18% +$1
politics 18% −$2
sports 15% +$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 3% -9.3%
all 88 -1.7% -11.0% 36% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage454d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $18 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 +$1 +63%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $129 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $86 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $75 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $65 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $9 −$2 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $35 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $6 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 +$2 +48%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $8 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $53 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $160 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $1 $0 -31%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $2 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $16 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $18 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.17 · official $36.20 (match) · 328 history records