Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A9 0xa912…bdf0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$182 (+22%) realized +$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$171
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$132
sports 6% +$18
crypto 4% +$21
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +29.1% +16.8% 83% 83% +11.3%
≤30d 13 +19.1% +7.8% 77% 77% +10.6%
≤90d 13 +19.1% +7.8% 77% 77% +10.6%
all 13 +19.1% +7.8% 77% 77% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 77% +10.6%
10% -2.5% 69% +0.0%
15% -11.9% 62% -9.7%
20% -20.6% 31% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$34 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 +$20 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$21 +143%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $189 +$41 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99 +$63 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 +$20 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 +$35 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $119 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $111 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $99 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $67 36h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $32 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $87 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $75 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.53 · official $68.53 (match) · 29 history records