Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa913…048f world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%36W / 57L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$4
other 38% −$3
sports 12% +$3
finance 4% −$2
politics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.0% -3.2% 45% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 39 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 5% -9.5%
all 93 +2.3% -7.5% 39% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage473d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $157 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $159 −$3 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 −$2 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $159 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $514 +$1 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $360 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $142 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $248 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $283 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $365 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $7 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $124 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $182 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $170 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $327 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $12 −$2 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $154 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $169 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $168 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $629 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $972 +$3 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,326 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $971 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,729 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $15 $0 -3%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $159 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $126 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $20 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $13 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $157 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $93 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $93 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $156 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $159 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $45 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $159 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $159 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.08 · official $159.08 (match) · 321 history records