Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa914…70ec other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
world 30% $0
politics 13% $0
finance 8% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% −$1
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 30 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage448d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $46 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on April 5? Apr 07 $25 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $41 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records