Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa914…d6cd other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,460 (+21%) realized +$1,464 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%50W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$6
sports 27% +$1,448
politics 25% +$4
tech 9% +$1
world 5% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 +5.7% -4.4% 93% 9% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 9% +9.9%
10% -13.5% 7% -0.6%
15% -21.9% 6% -10.2%
20% -29.5% 6% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$48 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.58 per $1 lost it wins $8.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$1,464
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses50 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage223d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 89¢ $68 $64 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 18 $225 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $254 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 21 $250 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 11 $252 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $244 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, May 03 $234 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Apr 28 $235 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 21 $155 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? Apr 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? Apr 12 $136 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $240? Apr 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 07 $160 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 28 $55 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Mar 28 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 20 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 14 $204 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $60? Mar 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 24 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $53 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 12 $10 $0 +1%
North Florida Ospreys vs. Austin Peay Governors Feb 02 $5 $0 +1%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Astra Sharma vs Kamilla Rakhimo Feb 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-02? Feb 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Tarleton State Texans Feb 02 $5 +$1 +27%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $13 $0 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Flyers vs. Kraken Dec 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 29 $1 +$3 +317%
San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego Tritons Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Dec 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30 BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30 BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 SELL No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 SELL No 99¢ $79 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 97¢ $225 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $250 20d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 27d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 31d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 36d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, BUY No 100¢ $200 41d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $7 41d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 100¢ $252 45d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, BUY No 100¢ $244 49d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, BUY No 100¢ $234 54d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY No 100¢ $235 61d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April BUY No 100¢ $155 67d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April BUY No 100¢ $80 67d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 BUY No 100¢ $200 70d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 56 million views on day 3? BUY No 100¢ $136 75d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 75d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $240? BUY No 100¢ $70 80d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 Week of March 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 80d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 85d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar BUY No 97¢ $55 89d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $100 89d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.16 · official $176.52 (match) · 120 history records