Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A9 0xa917…8495 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$242 (+19%) realized +$242 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR82%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$80

7 days+$92

14 days+$68

30 days+$122

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +82%

net ROI/market (all)+1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+6.4%	-3.7%	82%	82%	+1.6%
≤30d	14	+3.7%	-6.2%	79%	79%	+1.7%
≤90d	17	+11.9%	+1.3%	82%	82%	+9.4%
all	17	+11.9%	+1.3%	82%	82%	+9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.3%	82%	+9.4%
10%	-8.4%	71%	-1.1%
15%	-17.3%	35%	-10.7%
20%	-25.4%	18%	-19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +17% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$50 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$242

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage49d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca	Jun 27	$50	+$16	+32%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	Jun 27	$50	+$18	+37%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	Jun 27	$50	+$12	+24%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy	Jun 27	$155	+$33	+21%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	Jun 21	$107	+$48	+45%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	Jun 21	$78	+$29	+38%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma	Jun 21	$63	+$14	+23%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main	Jun 21	$55	−$55	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw	Jun 21	$48	+$15	+32%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh	Jun 20	$47	+$9	+18%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims	Jun 20	$48	−$48	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre	Jun 19	$48	−$47	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$95	+$23	+24%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P	Jun 06	$96	+$54	+57%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy	May 17	$96	+$31	+32%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight	May 16	$96	+$52	+54%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	May 09	$96	+$62	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca	SELL Asu Almabayev	100¢	$67	1h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca	BUY Asu Almabayev	75¢	$50	1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	SELL Ikram Aliskerov	99¢	$69	1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma	BUY Ikram Aliskerov	72¢	$50	2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	SELL Farman Hasanov	100¢	$62	2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)	BUY Farman Hasanov	80¢	$50	2h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy	SELL Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	100¢	$188	3h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy	BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	82¢	$155	5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	SELL Manel Kape	100¢	$155	6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Manel Kape	71¢	$72	6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Manel Kape	64¢	$35	6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	SELL Navajo Stirling	100¢	$107	6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	BUY Navajo Stirling	69¢	$51	6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	BUY Navajo Stirling	78¢	$26	6d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma	SELL Christian Rodriguez	100¢	$78	6d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma	BUY Christian Rodriguez	81¢	$63	6d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw	SELL Murtazali Magomedov	100¢	$63	6d
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main	BUY Andre Fili	58¢	$55	6d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh	SELL Bia Mesquita	100¢	$55	6d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims	SELL Allan Nascimento	0¢	$0	6d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh	BUY Bia Mesquita	84¢	$47	7d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre	BUY Michael Aswell	78¢	$48	7d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw	BUY Murtazali Magomedov	75¢	$48	7d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims	BUY Allan Nascimento	61¢	$48	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Josh Hokit	99¢	$118	12d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Josh Hokit	79¢	$95	13d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P	SELL Joanderson Brito	100¢	$150	20d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P	BUY Joanderson Brito	63¢	$96	21d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy	SELL Modestas Bukauskas	100¢	$127	41d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy	BUY Modestas Bukauskas	75¢	$96	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records