Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa917…4e8d sports 582 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,504 (-5%) realized −$7,575 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%266W / 310L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1,311est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$649
7 days−$14,174
14 days−$12,274
30 days−$4,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$12,103
other 7% +$2,757
politics 1% +$833
world 1% −$457
culture 0% +$395
finance 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -74.7% -77.1% 13% 13% -76.9%
≤30d 166 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 39% -23.3%
≤90d 553 -9.0% -17.6% 44% 44% -17.5%
all 576 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 46% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 46% -15.0%
10% -23.0% 46% -23.1%
15% -30.5% 44% -30.5%
20% -37.3% 42% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$226 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$921
Realized−$7,575
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses266 / 310
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,311
Open positions6
Markets (closed)576 / 582
History coverage97d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 52¢ $263 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 39¢ $81 $224 +$143 (+176%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 54¢ 40¢ $115 $84 −$31 (-27%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 47¢ 13¢ $55 $15 −$39 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $557 +$443 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $128 −$125 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $304 +$208 +68%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $260 +$124 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $54 +$126 +233%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 14 $308 −$302 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5) Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Jun 14 $195 −$195 -100%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 14 $172 −$172 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $117 25m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $122 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $216 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $267 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $557 38h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 22¢ $128 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $512 46h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $384 46h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $260 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $304 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $308 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $203 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $281 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $88 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 59¢ $107 4d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 48¢ $31 4d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 48¢ $94 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 46¢ $51 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 46¢ $0 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 46¢ $17 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $62 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $109 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $229 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $356 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $106 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $103 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $116 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $123 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $79 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $921.15 · official $921.15 (match) · 1572 history records