Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa919…65fa sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,558 (-9%) realized −$1,829 · open +$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%28W / 61L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days−$3,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,400
crypto 25% −$2,965
other 12% −$977
tech 1% −$100
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +108.2% +88.4% 100% 100% +88.4%
≤30d 16 -27.2% -34.1% 31% 31% -81.3%
≤90d 89 -27.8% -34.7% 31% 31% -21.1%
all 89 -27.8% -34.7% 31% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 31% -21.1%
10% -40.9% 29% -28.7%
15% -46.6% 29% -35.6%
20% -51.9% 28% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$146 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized−$1,829
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions7
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage66d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $250 $393 +$143 (+57%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $110 $273 +$163 (+148%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $102 +$110 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 22 $644 −$618 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $33 +$22 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $530 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 21 $319 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $1,385 −$1,300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 21 $667 −$667 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $51 +$77 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $768 −$368 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 21 $110 +$98 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $109 −$5 -4%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $304 −$300 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $152 +$120 +79%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $274 +$287 +105%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $143 −$140 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $1,781 +$188 +10%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $610 −$600 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $381 +$446 +117%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 13 $52 −$52 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Penguins vs. Flyers May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? May 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND United States v BUY 18¢ $26 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $212 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $312 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $55 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $33 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $330 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $232 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $97 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $221 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $47 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $55 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $8 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $54 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $45 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $107 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $19 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.44 · official $818.44 · 308 history records