Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa919…b25b other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 20% −$5
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.2% +24.2% 75% 12% -9.0%
≤30d 8 +37.2% +24.2% 75% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +37.2% +24.2% 75% 12% -9.0%
all 35 +5.9% -4.2% 51% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 3% -10.2%
10% -13.4% 3% -18.8%
15% -21.8% 3% -26.6%
20% -29.4% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage458d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 05 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 04 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? May 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $7 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $35 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $22 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $23 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $8 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $28 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $35 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $4 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $18 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $22 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records