Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91a…165b sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$401 (-9%) realized −$1,188 · open +$787
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$976
30 days−$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$787
sports 28% −$222
crypto 23% −$976
other 13% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 62% 38% -45.1%
all 13 -23.2% -30.5% 62% 38% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 38% -45.1%
10% -37.2% 23% -50.4%
15% -43.2% 8% -55.2%
20% -48.8% 8% -59.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$269 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,362
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized+$787
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage70d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1,575 $2,362 +$787 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,015 −$976 -96%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $331 −$328 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $296 +$35 +12%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Apr 10 $234 +$62 +27%
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5 Apr 10 $213 +$20 +10%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $184 +$29 +16%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 09 $169 +$15 +9%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $129 +$40 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $69 +$59 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5 Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Apr 08 $90 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $135 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $64 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $85 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,362.24 · official $2,362.24 (match) · 122 history records