Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91a…07e7 world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 22% $0
politics 20% +$1
economics 7% $0
weather 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.7% -15.5% 25% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -6.7% -15.5% 25% 6% -9.4%
all 46 +1.1% -8.5% 22% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage330d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or below on August 11? Aug 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $0 $0 +157%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Udachne before August? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $72 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 28 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 17m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 17m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $12 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $17 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $22 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $18 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $29 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $24 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $31 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records