Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa91b…f175 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$32 (+13%) realized +$40 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$7
sports 43% +$44
world 6% −$3
crypto 2% −$5
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +79.8% +62.7% 38% 38% +20.0%
≤30d 30 +73.8% +57.3% 37% 37% +15.4%
≤90d 32 +66.2% +50.4% 38% 34% +10.5%
all 34 +63.1% +47.6% 38% 35% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.6% 35% +10.9%
10% +33.5% 35% +0.3%
15% +20.6% 35% -9.4%
20% +8.7% 35% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage228d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $10 −$5 -49%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 11 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $17 +$10 +61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $29 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 22h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 40h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.28 · official $47.28 (match) · 58 history records