Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa91d…1fec crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$932 (-8%) realized −$932 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 139d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$2,547
sports 8% −$932
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -24.2% -31.5% 48% 43% -38.3%
≤30d 23 -24.2% -31.5% 48% 43% -38.3%
≤90d 23 -24.2% -31.5% 48% 43% -38.3%
all 23 -24.2% -31.5% 48% 43% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 43% -38.3%
10% -38.0% 43% -44.2%
15% -44.0% 35% -49.6%
20% -49.5% 17% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$620) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$537 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$932
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage139d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $513 −$513 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $509 −$509 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $523 −$523 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $620 +$633 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $512 +$246 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $517 −$517 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $765 +$326 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $772 +$625 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $521 +$717 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $204 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $198 +$145 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $529 −$529 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$33 +33%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 26 $932 −$932 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $208 +$77 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $513 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $509 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $280 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $243 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $512 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $516 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $481 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $515 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $510 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $512 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $254 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $258 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $260 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $521 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $118 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $222 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $172 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $262 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records