Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91f…5857 sports 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$39
other 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤90d 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -8.5%
all 8 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 50% -8.5%
10% -24.3% 50% -17.2%
15% -31.6% 50% -25.2%
20% -38.3% 50% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$81 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $96 −$95 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$49 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$82 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $198 +$103 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 +$99 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $96 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $47 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $99 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $301 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $198 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $198 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records