Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91f…5ffe other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-23%) realized −$121 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$30
sports 21% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 29% 29% -19.2%
≤30d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 29% 29% -19.2%
≤90d 7 -36.0% -42.1% 29% 29% -19.2%
all 7 -36.0% -42.1% 29% 29% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 29% -19.2%
10% -47.7% 29% -26.9%
15% -52.7% 29% -34.0%
20% -57.3% 29% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$26 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$58 +115%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$42 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 24m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 24m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 25m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $109 29m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $113 30m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 22h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.99 · official $248.99 (match) · 14 history records