Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91f…9212 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$34 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 44% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 44% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 44% -9.2%
all 9 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 44% -9.2%
10% -14.4% 33% -17.9%
15% -22.6% 33% -25.8%
20% -30.2% 33% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage12d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $45 $27 −$18 (-40%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $28 $11 −$17 (-59%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-35%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$4 -19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$10 +131%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +53%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $20 +$41 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 16m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 59m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 37h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 37h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $31 37h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $61 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 10d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.20 · official $104.20 (match) · 27 history records