Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa920…07a4 world 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (245 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day244.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$14
politics 29% $0
other 7% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (245 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.0% -17.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 34 -6.1% -15.0% 3% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 34 -6.1% -15.0% 3% 0% -8.9%
all 34 -6.1% -15.0% 3% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
43.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×179.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.45 per $1 lost it wins $5.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day244.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 16 $0 $0 -187%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -114%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 16 $204 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $853 +$16 +2%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 6m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 6m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 16m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 16m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 24m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 24m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 32m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 32m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 39m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 40m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 53m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 53m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 59m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 59m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.77 · official $8.86 · 3500 history records