Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa922…9a52 crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+5%) realized +$68 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate68%102W / 49L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$4
14 days+$38
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$20
weather 50% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 55% -9.2%
≤30d 151 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 60% -6.2%
≤90d 151 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 60% -6.2%
all 151 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 60% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 60% -6.2%
10% -14.4% 48% -15.1%
15% -22.7% 36% -23.3%
20% -30.3% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses102 / 49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Yes 54¢ 99¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.56 · official $31.52 (match) · 403 history records