Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa924…c79b crypto 409 markets active 16h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate77%315W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$8
politics 19% −$2
other 13% −$1
sports 13% −$27
world 8% −$6
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.8% -38.3% 38% 38% -36.2%
≤30d 43 -9.3% -18.0% 70% 26% -14.2%
≤90d 192 -2.7% -12.0% 90% 7% -11.1%
all 408 -2.4% -11.7% 77% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses315 / 93
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)408 / 409
History coverage143d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +23%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 +$8 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $4 +$3 +74%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $7 +$8 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Jun 05 $14 +$10 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $13 $0 +1%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 52¢ $8 16h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $9 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 23h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 50¢ $4 38h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 81¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $7 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 26¢ $8 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $5 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $10 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 72¢ $10 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $0 8d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $10 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $5 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $10 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 10d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 13d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 13d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.64 · official $7.64 (match) · 1993 history records