Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa927…4847 sports 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,571 (+5%) realized +$1,954 · open −$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%155W / 71L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,055
7 days−$3,475
14 days−$2,790
30 days−$1,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% +$1,973
other 21% −$833
crypto 17% −$753
world 17% +$509
politics 11% +$415
finance 7% +$71
tech 2% +$13
culture 1% +$8
economics 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -65.3% -68.6% 11% 11% -57.1%
≤30d 90 -29.8% -36.5% 37% 36% -28.7%
≤90d 170 +3.1% -6.7% 66% 61% -2.7%
all 226 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 63% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 63% -2.5%
10% -15.0% 45% -11.8%
15% -23.2% 28% -20.3%
20% -30.7% 16% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$97 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5,717
Realized+$1,954
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses155 / 71
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions51
Markets (closed)226 / 277
History coverage101d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 92¢ $200 $572 +$372 (+186%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 35¢ 72¢ $200 $403 +$203 (+102%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 29¢ 96¢ $100 $333 +$233 (+233%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $100 $156 +$56 (+56%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 28¢ 44¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 34¢ 25¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 67¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 75¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 30¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 35¢ $204 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 16¢ $103 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $207 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $207 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $100 13h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 26¢ $204 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $205 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $206 3d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $200 3d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $205 3d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 36¢ $205 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 3d
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 10d
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 34¢ $102 12d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 31¢ $102 13d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 29¢ $104 13d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY OpenAI 26¢ $103 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 33¢ $102 13d
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson BUY Elvina Kalieva 34¢ $102 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $103 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 21¢ $103 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 22¢ $102 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $104 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,716.51 · official $5,716.55 (match) · 614 history records